Sensemaking is hard. Sensemaking around a possible paradigm shift is even harder. This is about one particular narrative in crypto, as a way of reasoning about narratives in general.
This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://commoncog.com/narrative-about-crypto/
I’m actually really interested in other narratives that you find compelling in Crypto. @alexander I know you’re into NFTs — would you be willing to explain what you’re seeing in that space?
Speaking of sensemaking in crypto, here’s a good piece by Kyla Scanlon talking about the FOMO dynamics used to pump various coins:
(I should add that I’m mostly interested in the tech here, not the crazy valuations or the trades. But the narrative games these folk are playing are fascinating. It’s like something out of the tulip bubble!)
Nick Maggiulli has another take, which I think is rather balanced:
I can’t wait to continue sensemaking when the bubble bursts.
I am most intrigued by DAOs. They have the potential to reshape how people self-organize and coordinate to solve problems in all areas of life. Crypto and NFTs play a role in DAO development so I am learning about them too, but those are more the means to an end for me.
If anyone is involved in a DAO or knowledgeable about them and willing to educate a n00b about them, please message me!
More narratives, this time from Robin Sloan: Notes on Web3
The fun bit about all of this is that this is the complex adaptive system orienting itself in real time, producing maximally confusing narratives in the process.
I took a course by Daniel Vassallo about the importance of the strategy of Small Bets in business. Basically, randomness is unappreciated so you should optimize by taking as many low downside bets as possible, and then build on the ones that are successful. It’s informed by a lot of Taleb’s ideas, primarily Antifragility.
I see a lot of parallels with sensemaking. Treat each narrative as a small bet. If evidence grows for it, put more weight on it. One lesson is that it’s easier to see when something is not working than working. This goes along with Brian Lui’s technique of creating many possibilities and eliminating ones that don’t work rather than figuring out which one does work.